THE COP30, The meeting, held in Belém do Pará, took place at a crucial moment for global climate governance. With international efforts still far from what is needed to... limit global warming and the intensification of extreme weather events, This conference was presented as the COP of "truth" and "implementation." Ten years after the Paris Agreement, countries were expected to demonstrate their capacity to... to move forward in fulfilling commitments, especially in the field of climate finance and adaptation.
A key element of this edition was the expanded protagonism of civil society. The COP30 recorded a record attendance of more than 513,000 visitors between the Blue and Green Zones, bringing to the center of discussions groups that have historically been marginalized: indigenous peoples, riverside communities, family farmers, residents of the outskirts of cities, students, and communities affected by floods and other climate disasters.
Although political differences marked the negotiations, including a lack of consensus on fossil fuels and deforestation, the COP30 This resulted in significant agreements on adaptation, financing, and social inclusion, as well as strengthening the role of civil society in the multilateral process.
Climate finance: significant progress and persistent gaps
THE The financial agenda was one of the central pillars of COP30, with decisions that directly interfere with the ability of developing countries to respond to climate impacts and implement their climate goals.
Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF)
Among the most notable results is the official launch of Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF), proposed by Brazil. The fund establishes a permanent compensation mechanism for countries that conserve their tropical forests. The initiative seeks to create long-term financial predictability. The logic is to reverse the economic equation of deforestation., making it more advantageous to conserve than to destroy..
An initial group of countries — including Brazil, Indonesia, France, Germany, and Norway — announced approximately US$ 6 billion for the fund. The Brazilian proposal aims for a larger amount, estimated at US$ 25 billion.
Tripling of funding for adaptation by 2035
Another significant development was the decision to Triple global funding for adaptation by 2035.. This decision responds to the fact that the promise made in Glasgow in 2021 to double funding for adaptation from 2019 levels expires this year. The topic was in... central to the expectations of the most vulnerable countries., who advocated for more ambitious goals, including tripling until 2030.
The approved recommendation means that, given the goal of mobilizing US$ 1.3 trillion annually for developing countries until 2035, approximately US$ 120 billion per year They will need to go for adaptation.
Despite the progress, uncertainty remains about how these resources will be raised, what the contribution of historically major emitting countries will be, and how the resources will effectively reach vulnerable populations.
Itinerary “Baku to Bethlehem”
One of the structuring documents of COP30 was the Route from Baku to Bethlehem, prepared by the presidencies of COP29 and COP30. The roadmap describes essential actions to expand the climate finance, both public and private, and achieve the goal of US$ 1.3 trillion annually for developing countries until 2035.
The document represents a change of approach by acknowledging that All sources of funding should contribute to climate action., The global financial system needs to operate in a more integrated way, and national platforms can play a strategic role in coordinating financial flows.
Among the recommendations in the roadmap are: mechanisms to reduce climate debt, incentives to expand private financing, and improvements in access to multilateral funds.
The countries formally recognized the roadmap and agreed to move forward "urgently," although the recommendations were not discussed in depth.
Tensions over historical responsibilities: Article 9.1 and Article 2.1(c)
Developing countries pressed for debate on Article 9.1, which defines the commitment of developed countries to climate finance. After threats of obstruction, it was approved. a two-year work program on Article 9.1, to redefine what rich countries should finance; and a formal dialogue on Article 2.1(c), which deals with aligning global financial flows with climate goals.
This two-part equation is central: it's not enough to mobilize more money. It's necessary Stop funding what destroys., such as fossil fuel subsidies and deforestation.
Social inclusion and climate justice
In the social field, the COP30 It brought significant achievements. It was created... Just Transition Mechanism, which strengthens international cooperation and recognizes that addressing the climate crisis requires integrating social justice with environmental goals. The conference also reinforced, for the first time, indigenous participation, with over 2,500 representatives and three documents mentioning them both in their role as guardians of the forest and as agents of technological innovation.
Another important step forward was the approval of the new Gender Action Plan, which includes gender-sensitive financing and strengthening the leadership of Indigenous, Black, and rural women.
The challenges of adaptation
THE Global Adaptation Target (GGA) It was the subject of intense debate. In the end, COP30 adopted 59 indicators, distributed across sectors such as water, agriculture and health, as well as cross-cutting themes such as gender and human rights.
However, many of these indicators were modified in the final text, generating objections and concerns about their measurability. To address these challenges, a new system was created. Belém Vision – Addis, a two-year process dedicated to improving methodologies and metadata. The topic will be revisited in Bonn in 2026.
Gaps in the NDCs
Until the conference concludes, 119 countries, representing 74% of global emissions, had submitted their new NDCs. However, estimates They indicate that, when combined, they deliver less than 15% of the reductions needed by 2035 to limit the heating to 1.5°C.
In response, the COP launched the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Mission to Bethlehem to 1.5°C, designed to support the implementation of NDCs and National Adaptation Plans. Both initiatives, however, avoid mentioning fossil fuels, one of the main sticking points of the conference.
Brazil has announced that it will develop, on its own initiative, two global roadmaps: one for the energy transition and another to combat deforestation.
Nature, forests and bioeconomy
Despite the absence of a global agreement to eliminate the logging, However, there has been significant progress.
The commitment Forest and Land Tenure It was renewed with US$$ $1.8 billion until 2030 and expanding the scope beyond forests to include savannas, mangroves, and other ecosystems.
The Bioeconomy Challenge, A global platform to boost investment in sustainable forest economy markets was launched. And new international initiatives addressed forest fires, restoration of degraded lands and land governance; results demonstrate a significant shift in the recognition of the role that Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities play in protecting the ecosystems that sustain us all.
Brazil also joined Ocean Panel, aimed at the sustainable management of all territorial waters by 2030.
What was left out
Despite the significant progress achieved in Belém, the COP30 left key points no solution, many of them explicitly mentioned as important absences in the negotiations.
The most obvious frustration was... failure to include clear guidance on reducing the use of fossil fuels. Despite strong pressure from over 80 countries for a global roadmap for the phasing out of these energy sources, the final text made no explicit reference to the topic.
Another disappointment was... absence of a global plan to end deforestation. Although Brazil has made individual progress with the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Fund, the conference failed to approve an international roadmap establishing goals, deadlines, or multilateral mechanisms to address deforestation.
In the area of adaptation, although the 59 indicators have been formally adopted, The negotiation process was marked by last-minute changes., which significantly altered the technical content built over two years by 78 independent experts. Some indicators ceased to be measurable or methodologically robust, generating objections from several countries. Thus, although the GGA has progressed, the final result was seen as insufficient.
Taken together, these and other absences left a feeling that... COP30 It made progress on important issues, but It failed to deliver structural answers on points that were highly anticipated.
The importance of financial mechanisms
The large participation of biodiversity and face climate challenges at COP30 This demonstrates that without resources on a large scale, predictability, and simplified access, no progress in mitigation, adaptation, forest protection, or climate justice will be sufficient. Climate finance is not just a matter of mobilizing new resources, but of... reorienting the global financial system so that it can respond to the climate emergency and the needs of the most vulnerable countries. COP30 He emphasized that the financial choices made now will determine the speed and effectiveness of the climate transition in the coming decades.
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